Authors |
Laura Zhou, Quan Sun, Josyf Mychaleckyj, Holly Kramer, Stephen Rich, Jerome Rotter, Megan Shuey, Nancy Cox, NHBLI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Kidney Function Working Group, Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC), Lesley Inker, Nora Franceschini, Yun Li
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Abstract Text |
Glomerular filtration rate (GFR), an estimate of kidney function, is usually not directly measured in clinical practice. Instead, predictive equations of GFR were developed to estimate GFR (eGFR). The 2021 race-free Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations relate measured GFR (mGFR) to age, sex, and (1) serum creatinine or (2) serum creatinine and cystatin-C. Serum creatinine and cystatin-C have spline forms to account for the changing linear trend (creatinine: knot at 0.7 mg/dl for women and 0.9 mg/dL for men, cystatin-C: knot at 0.8 mg/l). We hypothesized that accounting for the genetic variation in eGFR, through a polygenic risk score (PRS), would improve the eGFR prediction of mGFR. Using the 2021 CKD-EPI forms for serum creatinine, cystatin-C, age, and sex, we added eGFR PRS as a covariate to the model. We fit a linear model including PRS for (1) creatinine only and (2) creatinine and cystatin-C equations, where eGFR PRS was computed with PRS-CS using European summary statistics from the Chronic Kidney Disease Genetics Consortium (SNPs = 8,834,748; minor allele count > 10). Using cross validations, we compared our PRS estimating equations with the (1) CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine-only and (2) CKD-EPI 2021 creatine and cystatin-C equation in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study of 1327 African American and White individuals. Performance measures included bias (median of difference (mGFR-eGFR)), precision (interquartile range for difference), accuracy (median of absolute difference, RMSE relative to mGFR, and percent of estimates within 30% of mGFR), and ROC. Chronic kidney disease, defined as GFR < 60, is a highly prevalent disease that affects many clinical decisions in the US. Thus, we are also interested in the performance of the eGFR equations in the cohort with mGFR< 60 versus the cohort with mGFR > 60. All performance measures were improved or performed comparably to CKD-EPI 2021 for predicting mGFR. For creatinine-only equations, our PRS eGFR creatinine equation improved the bias by 86% compared to the 2021 CKD-EPI creatinine only equation (0.50 vs 3.66). Our creatinine and cystatin-C equation with eGFR PRS improved bias by 92% compared to CKD-EPI 2021 creatine and cystatin-C equation (0.10 vs -2.02). For individuals with mGFR< 60, our PRS eGFR equation improved the accuracy by 73% (median absolute difference 1.51 versus 5.63 for CKD-EPI 2021) in the creatinine only equation and 7% (11.4 vs. 14.1) in the creatinine and cystatin-C equation. Further exploration on the form of PRS from diverse populations should further increase the performance. Additionally, we will replicate and validate our results in the MESA cohort.
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